Quantifying extreme climatic conditions for maize production using RZWQM in Siping, Northeast China
Keywords:
climate change, RZWQM, extra low and high temperatures, seasonal rainfall distribution, maize yield response, Northeast ChinaAbstract
Climate change has a great influence on agricultural production, especially under extreme climatic conditions. In this study, Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM) was used to predict grain yields of maize in the Siping region, Jilin Province, Northeast China during the period from 1951 to 2015; and the response of grain yield to main climatic variables was qualitatively analyzed, especially in three special years of 1954, 2000 and 2009. Results showed that 1°C increase for minimum, maximum and mean air temperatures may produce 1224 kg/hm2, 1860 kg/hm2 and 1540 kg/hm2 more grain yields, respectively, and seasonal rainfall amount of less than 450 mm, especially at the flowering and grain filling stages, greatly reduced grain yields. In the years of 1954, 2000 and 2009, grain yields were reduced by 41%, 47% and 40% compared to their mean value, respectively, correspondingly because of extra low temperature (lower by 2.1°C-2.3°C), less rainfall at the grain filling stage (36 mm) and extra high temperature (higher by 1.7°C-1.8°C), and less seasonal rainfall (252 mm). To reduce extreme climate’s effects on grain yield, it is suggested that supplementary irrigation at the flowering and grain filling stages should be provided when rainfall is much less at this stage and also appropriate maize species based on the longtime weather forecast should be selected. Keywords: climate change, RZWQM, extra low and high temperatures, seasonal rainfall distribution, maize yield response, Northeast China DOI: 10.25165/j.ijabe.20191202.3388 Citation: Liu H J, Liu Y, Zhang L W, Zhang Z J, Gao Z Z. Quantifying extreme climatic conditions for maize production using RZWQM in Siping, Northeast China. Int J Agric & Biol Eng, 2019; 12(2): 111–122.References
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[22] Ma L, Ahuja L R, Islam A, Trout T J, Saseendran S A, Malone R W. Modeling yield and biomass responses of maize cultivars to climate change under full and deficit irrigation. Agric Water Manage, 2017; 180: 88–98.
[23] Islam A, Ahuja L R, Garcia L A, Ma L, Saseendran A S, Trout T J. Modeling the impacts of climate change on irrigated corn production in the Central Great Plains. Agric Water Manage, 2012; 110: 94–108.
[24] Wang Z, Qi Z, Xue L, Bukovsky M, Helmers M J. Modeling the impacts of climate change on nitrogen losses and crop yield in a subsurface drained field. Clim Change, 2015; 129(1): 323–335.
[25] Sun Z, Li Z, Lu X, Bu Q, Ma X, Wang Y. Modeling soil type effects to improve rainfed corn yields in Northeast China. Agronomy Journal, 2016; 108(2): 498–508.
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[27] Ma L, Malone R W, Heilman P, Karlen D L, Kanwar R S, Cambardella C A, et al. RZWQM simulation of long-term crop production, water and nitrogen balances in Northeast Iowa. Geoderma, 2007; 140(3): 247–259.
[28] Saseendran S A, Trout T J, Ahuja L R, Ma L, McMaster G S, Nielsen D C, et al. Quantifying crop water stress factors from soil water measurements in a limited irrigation experiment. 2015; 137: 191–205.
[29] Qi Z, Ma L, Walter C B, Thomas J T, Lajpat R A, Gerald N F, et al. Simulating maize production, water and surface energy balance, canopy temperature, and water stress under full and deficit irrigation. Trans ASABE, 2016; 59(2): 623–633.
[30] Yu Q, Saseendran S A, Ma L, Flerchinger G N, Green T R, Ahuja L R. Modeling a wheat–maize double cropping system in China using two plant growth modules in RZWQM. Agric Syst, 2006; 89(2-3): 457–477.
[31] Cameira M R, Fernando R M, Ahuja L R, Ma L. Using RZWQM to simulate the fate of nitrogen in field soil–crop environment in the Mediterranean region. Agric Water Manage, 2007; 90(1–2): 121–136.
[32] Ma L, Trout T J, Ahuja L R, Bausch W C, Saseendran S A, Malone R W, et al. Calibrating RZWQM2 model for maize responses to deficit irrigation. Agric Water Manage, 2012; 103: 140–149.
[33] Loague K, Green R E. Statistical and graphical methods for evaluating solute transport models: Overview and application. J Contam Hydrol, 1991; 7(1): 51–73.
[34] Liu H J, Zhang R H, Zhang L W, Wang X M, Li Y, Huang G H. Stemflow of water on maize and its influencing factors. Agric Water Manage, 2015; 158: 35–41.
[35] Allen R G, Pereira L S, Raes D,d Smith M. Crop evapotranspiration:guidelines for computing crop water requirements. Irrigation and DrainagePaper 56. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United nations, Rome, 1998.
[36] Liu Z, Yang X, Hubbard K G, Lin X. Maize potential yields and yield gaps in the changing climate of northeast China. Glob Change Biol, 2012; 18(11): 3441–3454.
[37] Xu J, Li C, Liu H, Zhou P, Tao Z, Wang P, et al. The effects of plastic film mulching on maize growth and water use in dry and rainy years in northeast china. PLoS ONE, 2015; 10(5): e0125781.
[38] Guo J, Zhao J, Wu D, Mu J, Xu Y. Attribution of maize yield increase in China to climate change and technological advancement between 1980 and 2010. J Meteorol Res, 2014; 28(6): 1168–1181.
[39] Liu Z, Yang X, Chen F, Wang E. The effects of past climate change on the northern limits of maize planting in Northeast China. Clim Change, 2013; 117(4): 891–902.
[40] Wang X, Peng L, Zhang X, Yin G, Zhao C, Piao S. Divergence of climate impacts on maize yield in Northeast China. Agric Ecosyst Environ, 2014; 196: 51–58.
[41] Zhao J, Guo J, Mu J. Exploring the relationships between climatic variables and climate-induced yield of spring maize in Northeast China. Agric Ecosyst Environ, 2015; 207: 79–90.
[42] Dong W, Zhang L, Duan Y, Sun L, Zhao P, van der Werf W, et al. Ridge and furrow systems with film cover increase maize yields and mitigate climate risks of cold and drought stress in continental climates. Field Crop Res, 2017; 207: 71–78.
[43] Sui J, Wang J, Gong S, Xu D, Zhang Y, Qin Q. Assessment of maize yield-increasing potential and optimum N level under mulched drip irrigation in the Northeast of China. Field Crop Res, 2018; 215: 132–139.
[44] Ramakrishna A, Tam H M, Wani S P, Long T D. Effect of mulch on soil temperature, moisture, weed infestation and yield of groundnut in northern Vietnam. Field Crops Res., 2006; 95(2–3): 115–125.
[45] Wang F X, Feng S Y, Hou X Y, Kang S Z, Han J J. Potato growth with and without plastic mulch in two typical regions of Northern China. Field Crop Res, 2009; 110(2): 123–129.
[46] Dang J, Liang W, Wang G, Shi P, Wu D. A preliminary study of the effects of plastic film-mulched raised beds on soil temperature and crop performance of early-sown short-season spring maize (Zea mays L.) in the North China Plain. Crop J, 2016; 4(4): 331–337.
[47] Steinmetz Z, Wollmann C, Schaefer M, Buchmann C, David J, Tröger J, et al. Plastic mulching in agriculture. Trading short-term agronomic benefits for long-term soil degradation? Sci Total Environ, 2016; 550: 690–705.
[48] Wang L, Li X G, Guan Z H, Jia B, Turner N C, Li F M. The effects of plastic-film mulch on the grain yield and root biomass of maize vary with cultivar in a cold semiarid environment. Field Crop Res, 2018; 216: 89–99.
[49] Hou X Y, Wang F X, Han J J, Kang S Z, Feng S Y. Duration of plastic mulch for potato growth under drip irrigation in an arid region of Northwest China. Agric Forest Meteorol, 2010; 150(1): 115–121.
[50] Liu H J, Kang Y. Regulating field microclimate using sprinkler misting under hot-dry windy conditions. Biosyst Eng, 2006; 95(3): 349–358.
[2] Porter J R, Xie L, Challinor A J, Cochrane K, Howden S M, Iqbal M M, et al. Food security and food production systems. In: Field C B, Barros V R, Dokken D J, Mach K J, Mastrandrea M D, Bilir T E, et al. (Editors), Climate change 2014: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A: Global and sectoral aspects. contribution of working group ii to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2014; pp. 485–533.
[3] Chen Y, Wu Z, Okamoto K, Han X, Ma G, Chien H et al. The impacts of climate change on crops in China: A Ricardian analysis. Glob. Planet. Change, 2013; 104: 61–74.
[4] Ding T, Qian W, Yan Z. Changes in hot days and heat waves in China during 1961–2007. Int J Climatol, 2010; 30(10): 1452–1462.
[5] Middleton N J, Sternberg T. Climate hazards in drylands: A review. Earth-Sci Rev, 2013; 126: 48–57.
[6] Shannon H D, Motha R P. Managing weather and climate risks to agriculture in North America, Central America and the Caribbean. Weather Clim Extremes, 2015; 10, Part A: 50–56.
[7] Johansson R, Luebehusen E, Morris B, Shannon H, Meyer S. Monitoring the impacts of weather and climate extremes on global agricultural production. Weather Clim Extremes, 2015; 10, Part A: 65–71.
[8] Barlow K M, Christy B P, O’Leary G J, Riffkin P A, Nuttall J G. Simulating the impact of extreme heat and frost events on wheat crop production: A review. Field Crop Res, 2015; 171: 109–119.
[9] Hatfield J L, Prueger J H. Temperature extremes: Effect on plant growth and development. Weather Clim Extremes, 2015; 10, Part A: 4–10.
[10] NBSC. China statistical yearbook 2015. China Statistics Press, 2015, Beijing. (in Chinese)
[11] Byjesh K, Kumar S N, Aggarwal P K. Simulating impacts, potential adaptation and vulnerability of maize to climate change in India. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang, 2010; 15(5): 413–431.
[12] Abate T, Shiferaw B, Menkir A, Wegary D, Kebede Y, Tesfaye K, et al. Factors that transformed maize productivity in Ethiopia. Food Secur, 2015; 7(5): 965–981.
[13] Ahmadi S H, Mosallaeepour E, Kamgar-Haghighi A A, Sepaskhah A R. Modeling maize yield and soil water content with AquaCrop under full and deficit irrigation managements. Water Resour Manage, 2015; 29(8): 2837–2853.
[14] Liu Z, Yang X, Lin X, Hubbard K G, Lv S, Wang J. Maize yield gaps caused by non-controllable, agronomic, and socioeconomic factors in a changing climate of Northeast China. Sci Total Environ, 2016; 541: 756–764.
[15] Yang L, Yan B X, Cui T, Yu Y M, He X T, Liu Q, et al. Global overview of research progress and development of precision maize planters. Int J Agric Biol Eng, 2016; 9(1): 9–26.
[16] Chen C, Lei C, Deng A, Qian C, Hoogmoed W, Zhang W. Will higher minimum temperatures increase corn production in Northeast China? An analysis of historical data over 1965–2008. Agric Forest Meteorol, 2011; 151(12): 1580–1588.
[17] Chen C, Qian C, Deng A, Zhang W. Progressive and active adaptations of cropping system to climate change in Northeast China. Eur J Agron, 2012; 38: 94–103.
[18] Zhao C Y, Ying W, Xiao Y Z, Yan C, Yu-Lian L, Da-Ming S, et al. Changes in climatic factors and extreme climate events in Northeast China during 1961–2010. Adv Clim Chang Res, 2013; 4(2): 92–102.
[19] Xu Y, Guo J, Zhao J, Mu J. Scenario analysis on the adaptation of different maize varieties to future climate change in Northeast China. J Meteorol Res, 2014; 28(3): 469–480.
[20] Ma L, Hoogenboom G, Ahuja L R, Ascough Ii J C, Saseendran S A. Evaluation of the RZWQM-CERES-Maize hybrid model for maize production. Agric Syst, 2006; 87(3): 274–295.
[21] Ma L, Malone R W, Heilman P, Jaynes D B, Ahuja L R, Saseendran S A, et al. RZWQM simulated effects of crop rotation, tillage, and controlled drainage on crop yield and nitrate-N loss in drain flow. Geoderma, 2007; 140(3): 260–271.
[22] Ma L, Ahuja L R, Islam A, Trout T J, Saseendran S A, Malone R W. Modeling yield and biomass responses of maize cultivars to climate change under full and deficit irrigation. Agric Water Manage, 2017; 180: 88–98.
[23] Islam A, Ahuja L R, Garcia L A, Ma L, Saseendran A S, Trout T J. Modeling the impacts of climate change on irrigated corn production in the Central Great Plains. Agric Water Manage, 2012; 110: 94–108.
[24] Wang Z, Qi Z, Xue L, Bukovsky M, Helmers M J. Modeling the impacts of climate change on nitrogen losses and crop yield in a subsurface drained field. Clim Change, 2015; 129(1): 323–335.
[25] Sun Z, Li Z, Lu X, Bu Q, Ma X, Wang Y. Modeling soil type effects to improve rainfed corn yields in Northeast China. Agronomy Journal, 2016; 108(2): 498–508.
[26] Ma L, Ahuja L R, Ascough Ii J C, Shaffer M J, Rojas K W, Malone R W, et al. Integrating system modeling with field research in agriculture: applications of the root zone water quality model (RZWQM), Advances in Agronomy. Academic Press, 2001; pp. 233–292.
[27] Ma L, Malone R W, Heilman P, Karlen D L, Kanwar R S, Cambardella C A, et al. RZWQM simulation of long-term crop production, water and nitrogen balances in Northeast Iowa. Geoderma, 2007; 140(3): 247–259.
[28] Saseendran S A, Trout T J, Ahuja L R, Ma L, McMaster G S, Nielsen D C, et al. Quantifying crop water stress factors from soil water measurements in a limited irrigation experiment. 2015; 137: 191–205.
[29] Qi Z, Ma L, Walter C B, Thomas J T, Lajpat R A, Gerald N F, et al. Simulating maize production, water and surface energy balance, canopy temperature, and water stress under full and deficit irrigation. Trans ASABE, 2016; 59(2): 623–633.
[30] Yu Q, Saseendran S A, Ma L, Flerchinger G N, Green T R, Ahuja L R. Modeling a wheat–maize double cropping system in China using two plant growth modules in RZWQM. Agric Syst, 2006; 89(2-3): 457–477.
[31] Cameira M R, Fernando R M, Ahuja L R, Ma L. Using RZWQM to simulate the fate of nitrogen in field soil–crop environment in the Mediterranean region. Agric Water Manage, 2007; 90(1–2): 121–136.
[32] Ma L, Trout T J, Ahuja L R, Bausch W C, Saseendran S A, Malone R W, et al. Calibrating RZWQM2 model for maize responses to deficit irrigation. Agric Water Manage, 2012; 103: 140–149.
[33] Loague K, Green R E. Statistical and graphical methods for evaluating solute transport models: Overview and application. J Contam Hydrol, 1991; 7(1): 51–73.
[34] Liu H J, Zhang R H, Zhang L W, Wang X M, Li Y, Huang G H. Stemflow of water on maize and its influencing factors. Agric Water Manage, 2015; 158: 35–41.
[35] Allen R G, Pereira L S, Raes D,d Smith M. Crop evapotranspiration:guidelines for computing crop water requirements. Irrigation and DrainagePaper 56. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United nations, Rome, 1998.
[36] Liu Z, Yang X, Hubbard K G, Lin X. Maize potential yields and yield gaps in the changing climate of northeast China. Glob Change Biol, 2012; 18(11): 3441–3454.
[37] Xu J, Li C, Liu H, Zhou P, Tao Z, Wang P, et al. The effects of plastic film mulching on maize growth and water use in dry and rainy years in northeast china. PLoS ONE, 2015; 10(5): e0125781.
[38] Guo J, Zhao J, Wu D, Mu J, Xu Y. Attribution of maize yield increase in China to climate change and technological advancement between 1980 and 2010. J Meteorol Res, 2014; 28(6): 1168–1181.
[39] Liu Z, Yang X, Chen F, Wang E. The effects of past climate change on the northern limits of maize planting in Northeast China. Clim Change, 2013; 117(4): 891–902.
[40] Wang X, Peng L, Zhang X, Yin G, Zhao C, Piao S. Divergence of climate impacts on maize yield in Northeast China. Agric Ecosyst Environ, 2014; 196: 51–58.
[41] Zhao J, Guo J, Mu J. Exploring the relationships between climatic variables and climate-induced yield of spring maize in Northeast China. Agric Ecosyst Environ, 2015; 207: 79–90.
[42] Dong W, Zhang L, Duan Y, Sun L, Zhao P, van der Werf W, et al. Ridge and furrow systems with film cover increase maize yields and mitigate climate risks of cold and drought stress in continental climates. Field Crop Res, 2017; 207: 71–78.
[43] Sui J, Wang J, Gong S, Xu D, Zhang Y, Qin Q. Assessment of maize yield-increasing potential and optimum N level under mulched drip irrigation in the Northeast of China. Field Crop Res, 2018; 215: 132–139.
[44] Ramakrishna A, Tam H M, Wani S P, Long T D. Effect of mulch on soil temperature, moisture, weed infestation and yield of groundnut in northern Vietnam. Field Crops Res., 2006; 95(2–3): 115–125.
[45] Wang F X, Feng S Y, Hou X Y, Kang S Z, Han J J. Potato growth with and without plastic mulch in two typical regions of Northern China. Field Crop Res, 2009; 110(2): 123–129.
[46] Dang J, Liang W, Wang G, Shi P, Wu D. A preliminary study of the effects of plastic film-mulched raised beds on soil temperature and crop performance of early-sown short-season spring maize (Zea mays L.) in the North China Plain. Crop J, 2016; 4(4): 331–337.
[47] Steinmetz Z, Wollmann C, Schaefer M, Buchmann C, David J, Tröger J, et al. Plastic mulching in agriculture. Trading short-term agronomic benefits for long-term soil degradation? Sci Total Environ, 2016; 550: 690–705.
[48] Wang L, Li X G, Guan Z H, Jia B, Turner N C, Li F M. The effects of plastic-film mulch on the grain yield and root biomass of maize vary with cultivar in a cold semiarid environment. Field Crop Res, 2018; 216: 89–99.
[49] Hou X Y, Wang F X, Han J J, Kang S Z, Feng S Y. Duration of plastic mulch for potato growth under drip irrigation in an arid region of Northwest China. Agric Forest Meteorol, 2010; 150(1): 115–121.
[50] Liu H J, Kang Y. Regulating field microclimate using sprinkler misting under hot-dry windy conditions. Biosyst Eng, 2006; 95(3): 349–358.
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2019-04-06
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Liu, H., Liu, Y., Zhang, L., Zhang, Z., & Gao, Z. (2019). Quantifying extreme climatic conditions for maize production using RZWQM in Siping, Northeast China. International Journal of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, 12(2), 111–122. Retrieved from https://ijabe.migration.pkpps03.publicknowledgeproject.org/index.php/ijabe/article/view/3388
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