Climate change impact assessment on three major crops in the north-central region of Bangladesh using DSSAT
Keywords:
climate change, DSSAT, MAGICC/SCENGEN model, CERES model, SUBSTOR model, growing season length, crop-water useAbstract
The potential consequences of climate change emanated from global warming are very alarming; the greatest concern is the potentially disastrous consequences on crop agriculture and food security in many parts of the world. Bangladesh is a country highly susceptible to climate change, but information in this regard is still inadequate. This study investigated the effects of climate change on three major crops – wheat, potato and rice – in the north-central region of Bangladesh. Two climate change scenarios, A2 and B2, of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were generated by employing MAGICC/SCENGEN model together with the observed climate data of the region. The growth and yield of the crops were simulated using DSSAT CERES-Wheat, SUBSTOR-Potato and CERES-Rice models under the present and projected future changing climatic conditions. For a predicted 5.32ºC increase in temperature in the year 2100, the yield of wheat, rice and potato would decrease by 47.6%, 67.8% and 38.6%, respectively. The increased temperature would accelerate physiological maturity of the crops as reflected by their reduced length of growing season (LGS) by 1.20% to 18.5%. The reduced LGS would reduce seasonal evapotranspiration (ET) of the crops by shortening time-span for ET generation. Due to dominant yield reduction over ET reduction, the water use efficiency (WUE) for grain/tuber and biomass yields would decrease with the changing climate. The reduced crop yields are an indicative of a potential future risk of food security in Bangladesh. The results of this study can therefore guide to adopt coping mechanisms in the light of climate change to ensure future food security of the country. Keywords: climate change, DSSAT, MAGICC/SCENGEN model, CERES model, SUBSTOR model, growing season length, crop-water use DOI: 10.25165/j.ijabe.20181104.3331 Citation: Rahman A, Mojid M A, Banu S. Climate change impact assessment on three major crops in the north-central region of Bangladesh using DSSAT. Int J Agric & Biol Eng, 2018; 11(4): 135-143.References
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[28] Iqbal M M. Assessment of food and water security in south-asia under changing climate scenario using crop simulation and water management models, and identification of appropriate strategies to meet future demands. Kobe, Japan: APN, 2008.
[29] Tripathi A, Tripathi D, Chauhan D, Kumar N, Singh G. Paradigms of climate change impacts on some major food sources of the world: a review on current knowledge and future prospects. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ, 2016; 216: 356–373.
[30] Zhang S, Tao F, Zhang Z. Changes in extreme temperatures and their impacts on rice yields in southern China from 1981 to 2009, Field Crop. Res, 2016; 189: 43–50.
[31] Long S. Modification of the response of photosynthetic productivity to rising temperature by atmospheric CO2 concentrations - has its importance been underestimated? Plant Cell Environ, 1991; 14(8): 729–739.
[32] Tubiello F, Rosenzweig C, Kimball B, Pinter P, Wall G, Hunsaker D, LaMorte R, Garcia R. Testing CERES-wheat with free-air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) experiment data: CO2 and water interactions. Agron. J., 1999; 91(2): 247–255.
[33] Jalota S, Vashisht B, Kaur H, Kaur S, Kaur P. Location specific climate change scenario and its impact on rice and wheat in Central Indian Punjab. Agric. Syst., 2014; 131: 77–86.
[34] Guo R, Lin Z, Mo X, Yang C. Responses of crop yield and water use efficiency to climate change in the North China Plain. Agric. Water Manage, 2010; 97(8): 1185–1194.
[35] Tao F, Yokozawa M, Xu Y, Hayashi Y, Zhang Z. Climate changes and trends in phenology and yields of field crops in China, 1981-2000. Agric. Forest Meteorol, 2006; 138(1-4): 82–92.
[36] Basak J K. Effects of climate change on Boro cultivation in Bangladesh. MS Thesis. Dhaka: Department of Civil Engineering, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, 2009.
[37] Menzel A. Plant phenological anomalies in Germany and their relation to air temperature and NAO. Clim. Change, 2003; 57(3): 243–263.
[2] BBS (Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics). Yearbook of agricultural statistics of Bangladesh. Dhaka, Bangladesh: Statistics Division, Ministry of Planning, Government of the People's Republic of Bangladesh, 2001.
[3] BBS (Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics). Yearbook of agricultural statistics of Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh: Statistics Division, Ministry of Planning, Government of the People's Republic of Bangladesh, 2012–2013.
[4] BBS (Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics). Statistical pocket book of Bangladesh. Dhaka, Bangladesh: Ministry of Planning, Government of the People's Republic of Bangladesh, 2008.
[5] BBS (Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics). Yearbook of Agricultural Statistics of Bangladesh. Dhaka, Bangladesh: Statistics Division, Ministry of Planning, Government of the People's Republic of Bangladesh, 2010–2011.
[6] Mondal M H. Crop agriculture of Bangladesh: challenges and opportunities. Bangladesh J. Agric. Res., 2010; 235–245.
[7] IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Summary for policymakers, in: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt K B, Tignor M, Miller H L (Eds.), editors. Climate change, 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press, 2007.
[8] FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization). Adaptation to climate change in agriculture, forestry and fisheries: perspective, framework and priorities. Rome, Italy: Food and Agriculture Organization, 2007.
[9] IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Climate change 2001: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the third assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, 2001.
[10] Agrawala S, Ota T, Ahmed AU, Smith J, Aalst M. Development and climate change in Bangladesh: focus on coastal flooding and the sundarbans. Paris, France: OECD, 2003.
[11] Basak J K, Ali M A, Islam M N, Rashid M A. Assessment of the effect of climate change on boro rice production in Bangladesh using DSSAT model. J. Civil Eng. 2010; 38: 95–108.
[12] Mertz O, Halsnaes K, Olesen J, Rasmussen K. Adaptation to Climate Change in Developing Countries. Environ. Manage, 2009; 43(5): 743–752.
[13] Roudier P, Sultan B, Quirion P, Berg A. The impact of future climate change on West African crop yields: What does the recent literature say? Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions, 2011; 21(3): 1073–1083.
[14] WB (World Bank). World development report. Washington, DC: The World Bank, 2010.
[15] Cline W R. Global warming and agriculture: impact estimates by country. Washington, DC: Cent. Global Dev, 2007.
[16] Parry M, Rosenzweig C, Iglesias A, Livermore M, Fischer G. Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions, 2004; 14(1): 53–67.
[17] Rosegrant M W, Cai X, Cline S A. World water and food to 2025: dealing with scarcity. Washington, DC/Sri Lanka: Int. Water Manage. Inst, 2002.
[18] BBS (Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics). Yearbook of agricultural statistics of Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh: Statistics Division, Ministry of Planning, Government of the People's Republic of Bangladesh, 2011.
[19] Biswas S K. Effects of irrigation with municipal wastewater on wheat and potato cultivation. Ph.D. Dissertation. Mymensingh: Department of Irrigation and Water Management, Bangladesh Agricultural University, 2012.
[20] Reza S N. Growth, yield and grain dimensions of T. Aman rice varieties as influenced by date of transplanting. MS Thesis. Mymensingh: Department of Agronomy, Bangladesh Agricultural University, 2014.
[21] BARC (Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council). Soil fertility status of different agro-ecological zones. Dhaka: Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council, 2005. pp.15–32.
[22] IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Special report on emissions scenarios (SRES), in: Nakicenovic N, Swart R. (Eds.). Summary for policymakers. Geneva, Switzerland: Cambridge University Press, 2000; p.20.
[23] Goodin D, Hutchinson J, Vanderlip R, Knapp M. Estimating solar
irradiance for crop modeling using daily air temperature data. Agron. J., 1999; 91(5): 845–851.
[24] Tsuji G Y, Uehara G, Balas S. DSSAT: A decision support system for agrotechnology transfer. Honolulu, Hawaii, USA: University of Hawaii, 1994.
[25] Jones J, Hoogenboom G, Porter C, Boote K, Batchelor W, Hunt L, Wilkens P, Singh U, Gijsman A, Ritchie J. The DSSAT cropping system model. Eu. J. Agron., 2003; 18(3-4): 235–265.
[26] Mojid M A, Wyseure G. Fertility aspects of municipal wastewater on rice cultivation and soil health in Bangladesh. In "Fertilizers technology II: biofertilizers". Shishir S, Pant K K, Bajpc S, Govil J N. (Eds.). Studiurn Press LLC, USA, 2015; pp.410–423.
[27] Tubiello F, Rosenzweig C, Goldberg R, Jagtap S, Jones J. Effects of climate change on US crop production: simulation results using two different GCM scenarios. Part I: wheat, potato, maize, and citrus. Clim. Res., 2002; 20(3): 259–270.
[28] Iqbal M M. Assessment of food and water security in south-asia under changing climate scenario using crop simulation and water management models, and identification of appropriate strategies to meet future demands. Kobe, Japan: APN, 2008.
[29] Tripathi A, Tripathi D, Chauhan D, Kumar N, Singh G. Paradigms of climate change impacts on some major food sources of the world: a review on current knowledge and future prospects. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ, 2016; 216: 356–373.
[30] Zhang S, Tao F, Zhang Z. Changes in extreme temperatures and their impacts on rice yields in southern China from 1981 to 2009, Field Crop. Res, 2016; 189: 43–50.
[31] Long S. Modification of the response of photosynthetic productivity to rising temperature by atmospheric CO2 concentrations - has its importance been underestimated? Plant Cell Environ, 1991; 14(8): 729–739.
[32] Tubiello F, Rosenzweig C, Kimball B, Pinter P, Wall G, Hunsaker D, LaMorte R, Garcia R. Testing CERES-wheat with free-air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) experiment data: CO2 and water interactions. Agron. J., 1999; 91(2): 247–255.
[33] Jalota S, Vashisht B, Kaur H, Kaur S, Kaur P. Location specific climate change scenario and its impact on rice and wheat in Central Indian Punjab. Agric. Syst., 2014; 131: 77–86.
[34] Guo R, Lin Z, Mo X, Yang C. Responses of crop yield and water use efficiency to climate change in the North China Plain. Agric. Water Manage, 2010; 97(8): 1185–1194.
[35] Tao F, Yokozawa M, Xu Y, Hayashi Y, Zhang Z. Climate changes and trends in phenology and yields of field crops in China, 1981-2000. Agric. Forest Meteorol, 2006; 138(1-4): 82–92.
[36] Basak J K. Effects of climate change on Boro cultivation in Bangladesh. MS Thesis. Dhaka: Department of Civil Engineering, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, 2009.
[37] Menzel A. Plant phenological anomalies in Germany and their relation to air temperature and NAO. Clim. Change, 2003; 57(3): 243–263.
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Published
2018-08-08
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Rahman, A., Mojid, M. A., & Banu, S. (2018). Climate change impact assessment on three major crops in the north-central region of Bangladesh using DSSAT. International Journal of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, 11(4), 135–143. Retrieved from https://ijabe.migration.pkpps03.publicknowledgeproject.org/index.php/ijabe/article/view/3331
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